Kamis, 30 Juni 2005

Just a technical tradingday

Four trades today. When I looked at the market this morning I quickly grasped it for today. I intented to enter the market at a certain level. The 4605, the level I had in mind, playing an important role throughout the day. I wanted to trade long when closing above it.

But as so often happens the market initially didn't make this expected move and went south below 4600. See chart. I tried to go with it but never trust the first movement. Trading is about adaptation but this trade went into a loser. The other three trades were winners and traded around 4605.


Rabu, 29 Juni 2005

Internet and trading (part 2)

I am trading at two geografically different places which means I allways have to consider how to keep my data up to date. My data are downloaded and kept on my computer, I use Interactivebrokers and Sierracharts, so I have to make copies and take them with me when trading elsewhere. Since I use Yousendit I don't need these copies to take with me but just I just send them via GMAIL. Quite nice.

But now I found Yahoo! My web. This enables me to bookmark sites, webpages blogs, and so on without bothering about where to hold a copy of them. Now I can retrive them anywhere I want. Of course it surprised me what Yahoo! knows about me.
Is there a privacy point here? Hum, at the moment I can live with it and weighs the advantage for me greater. In fact it is the same story as with mail via outlook or webased like hotmail.




Internet and trading

I traded today quitte succesfully but I not without some fear. Just in position Long on the FDAX after US data coming out in afternoon my internet connection colapsed. I use two PC's and two or three screens to trade. What could I do then to restart and to hope I would be fixed. Christ. What went wrong? Some kind of router overload? My ineternet provider having problems? How knows.
When I restarted to whole thing I luckily had connection again, but I closed my position immediately with a few points win. Markets thereafter up again but I have had enough for today.

Nice bottoming yesterday, formation of a morning star, see chart of the S&P500.


Sabtu, 25 Juni 2005

I did not trade for some days. I wasnot interested and not motivated. This is important. Today I had time to read. I allways study markets, charts on different timefrime and on on every market. Concepts holding true for commidities may also apply to oilprices, stockprices, bonds, eurodollars and so on. Chartspatterns can be reckognised on monthly, weekly, daily, 30 min or tickcharts.

How can you master them? The only way is learn to look charts over and over again to study them carefully. This is best been done without bing emotional involved, eg being offline. Some kind of backtesting but then with chartpatterns. Of course you have to see in them when prices change, direct in front of your pc when markets are open.

The human mind is very powerfull to solve problems but also very weak in recognising patterns. There is a well known test reckognising human faces. Results were dramatic; even police men didnot perform well. In fact they even reckoned faces more badly than avarage. So how does a trader possibly reckognise chartpatterns? In an interview with the famous writer, and trader Bulkowski read his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns in Traders of July 2005 he said he has enough of 50 chart patterns to trade succesfully. So here lies the answer: learn and reckognise and then remember a couple of patterns and trade only them.




Senin, 20 Juni 2005

Partial Gapclose

The FDAX opened lower today with a gap of more than 30 points. I poerformed one trade at the 4600 level. This is of course tricky. Sometimes the FDAX retraces from a gap but this time not immediately. Later on the day a partial gapclose so characteristic for this market.

Selasa, 14 Juni 2005

Wrong

I don't know how I feel after todays tradingday. FDAX market very unsecure and nervous testing the 4600. In the morning I gained a nice position but I hesitated to close expecting the full score (which is 10 points) which could have been achieved. so I had to close at entry. No gain nor loss in the morning.
A total different story in the afternoon. Markets moving in a very narrow range and I went three times short but three times the future turned at support resulting in a losing day.
There are days you lose, there is nothing to do about that. But I feel empty.




Jumat, 10 Juni 2005

Hurry and stops

I was in a hurry today because I had to leave early in the afternoon. This gives a kind of pressure which is not good for trading. Besides that I don't like fridays trading because most of these days pass by very quietly untill the US opens in the afternoon.

The first trade was a loser and I knew it. I had time and the opportunity to close earlier. Before I take a trade I allways have a way out, this means I allways have a stop loss. I use a maximum stop of 10 points but in most cases my initial stop is lower and is determined by market circumstances like momentum, resistance/support levels and old tops and so on. Quite another type of stop is more discretionary taken. When I feel a position is wrong I close. This type of stop is intuitive. I got it after trading some years. So I closed my short trade after the FDAX breaking a resistance.

The second trade was risky because of the forming of a double top intraday. It gave me some points and because I had to leave I closed. When I came back to my pc I saw the FDAX moving at a lower level, confirming this double top. For the moment this is not enough for me to see an and to the strong bull trend of the DAX..




Kamis, 09 Juni 2005

Harami

I performed 2 trades today. The FDAX highly volatile in the afternoon. I dont like candles with big shadows. In general I avoid trading these. I intended to go long after the channel breakout and when it did I traded two times succesfully. I didn't feel anything at the first trade: clean, quick and easy.

The second trade was more difficult because I came in at the end of long bar up which was then followed by a classical harami, see blue arrow in the chart. This doesn't work allways but it did now.


Rabu, 08 Juni 2005

Surviving a dull day

A dull day on the markets till now. The FDAX without direction, so I was not able to take a trade. Did some reading and found something on chatrooms for traders. Sounds interesting enough to me, talking to other traders throughout the day sharing thoughts and trade ideas. I will try the software from hotcomm and see if I can join some group.

I use for my trading candlesticks. I never heard of it but it seems that with use Heikin-Ashi better predictions could be made about trends and trend turns. Heikin-Ashi is another way of charting data based on regular candlesticks. Very interesting and I will have a close look at this too.




Selasa, 07 Juni 2005

Surprised by the DAX

I am still surprised by the strong bull movement of the FDAX recently, see chart. Today again a big white candle indicating this trend may be not over yet but off course this will come to an end some day. Will I recognise it?

Intraday I went long early in the morning.


Jumat, 03 Juni 2005

Volume

This day went quite nice with my trading. I was reading about the influence of Volume on trading futures in Traders by Alexander Schwarz. He studied various trade entries by two price patterns in combination with volume on the FDAX. His conclusion was that in the this future market volume didnot matter much or is at least problematic.
It is the price that counts, not volume.

I have two comments on this. Years ago I was discussing this with other traders. I wasnot trading for long then but I had somehow the idea that volume could not be of my interest for my trading. Basically because I had the feeling that when entering a trade, volume did not determine my trade to be a loser or a winner. Prices move with or without big volume.

The second thought about this that volume does counts when you take the level II into consideration. Read about level II here.





Kamis, 02 Juni 2005

Recognition

A true and calm day. In a way the markets just sideways and testing the year high of yesterday. The DAX for most of the day without momentum. This morning I "saw" where would go long. It is just about recognition, you could say in a glimpse. The level playing an imporant role the rest of the day. I am glad I traded it.

The rest of the day I didnot trade but read some articles, this one being very interesting about chartpatterns from Linda Raschke. It meanly stresses that "old" fashioned trading style is not out dated at all. Important levels, divergence outbreak levels, chart patterns and so on.

In the last hours of the FDAX regaining some momentum to close near high.





Rabu, 01 Juni 2005

Four trades

Today was an incredible day. The FDAX already at its high of the year and rising again today. I performed 4 trades today, an amount which I dont like at all. I like days with one or two trades. The first trade was wrong and I knew it because it was just done without proper preparation. I mean it was done without the data of the two days before so I lacked important levels of restistance and support.
Sometimes when you know a trade is wrong you can turn your direction...sometimes. It went okay for today with 10 points gain.
In the afternoon my third trade was a loser too. I reckon with myself that decisions to take a trade depend more and more on intraday patterns and levels. The FDAX went down near daylow, ok I lost but the decision was good.
After data release in the states markets again pushing higher beating the 4500 level. I went long with it which was okay but due to slippage my price was optimal. It could easily been a 10 points gain but as I was impatient and got out too early. I was not believing what I saw: a very stong uptrend which now lasts for weeks. I also believe that staying in my position becomes more difficult when it is the third or fourh trade of the day. Somehow being afraid too lose that trade. Of course every trade must be seen without looking to past results but of course this is not allways easy done.


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