Kamis, 27 November 2008
Rabu, 26 November 2008
What is the Best Hangover Cure?
To help you brave the most—and often least—wonderful time of the year, and because moderating your drinking during the holidays is simply not an option,...more >we offer the following thoroughly researched remedies. Some are ancient, some are new, and nearly all are legal. May the season provide you occasion to try them all.
read more | digg story
read more | digg story
Rabu, 19 November 2008
Ron Howard Confirms an "Arrested Development" Movie
Life just got a whole lot better because Ron Howard confirmed an Arrested Development movie!!! If you aren't familiar with the show, get familiar immediately. Probably the funniest show that's ever been on TV and you can watch all the episodes for free on Hulu.com!
Minggu, 16 November 2008
VOLATILITY
No one has missed the tremendous rise in volatility in september and even more in oktober: the VIX index thee-doubled in the value since the beginning of september. We saw intraday movements only normally seen in months. It is also the sudden change in volatility that has surprised many people.
Look at the VIX data at the yahoo website during the last 6 months and for a comparison a chart since 1990. It seems that all of a sudden the world has completely changed since oktober. In reality it hasnot.
(Data from Yahoo)
Quite a while ago I wrote an article about intrady movements on the German Future DAX in a magazine called Traders.
There I defined volatility as the difference between the daily Highs minus the daily Lows because this value being really of importance for daytraders as they feel this movement throughout the day.
The data were gathered and various statistical tests were performed with it. One of the aims was to see if the data would fit in some distribution. It was no surprise that these data did not fit in a normal ditribution. It is almost ridiculous now to think of normality data returns.
The best guess then was the General Extreme Value distribution (GEV). These kind of distributions are known from Extreme Value Theories, fairly complicated material and for more details I refer to my article.
Some of the conclussions drawn from the article were:
Importantly the intraday movements do not follow a normal distribution but exhibit a fat right tail and skewness to the right. The non normality of these intraday movements has consequences for risk analysis (.. as done in VaR calculations).
The observation of bigger intraday movements than could be expected when normally distributed has consequences for risk management. Fitting data in a Fisher-Tippett or GEV distribution and looking at the relevant cumulative distribution gives a much better insight in the possible intraday movements of the FDAX and thus in the risk you may expect, but also in the opportunities this gives.
This was a good thought and seems to be totally right (but not followed by the so called professionals).
Look at the VIX data at the yahoo website during the last 6 months and for a comparison a chart since 1990. It seems that all of a sudden the world has completely changed since oktober. In reality it hasnot.
(Data from Yahoo)
Quite a while ago I wrote an article about intrady movements on the German Future DAX in a magazine called Traders.
There I defined volatility as the difference between the daily Highs minus the daily Lows because this value being really of importance for daytraders as they feel this movement throughout the day.
The data were gathered and various statistical tests were performed with it. One of the aims was to see if the data would fit in some distribution. It was no surprise that these data did not fit in a normal ditribution. It is almost ridiculous now to think of normality data returns.
The best guess then was the General Extreme Value distribution (GEV). These kind of distributions are known from Extreme Value Theories, fairly complicated material and for more details I refer to my article.
Some of the conclussions drawn from the article were:
Importantly the intraday movements do not follow a normal distribution but exhibit a fat right tail and skewness to the right. The non normality of these intraday movements has consequences for risk analysis (.. as done in VaR calculations).
The observation of bigger intraday movements than could be expected when normally distributed has consequences for risk management. Fitting data in a Fisher-Tippett or GEV distribution and looking at the relevant cumulative distribution gives a much better insight in the possible intraday movements of the FDAX and thus in the risk you may expect, but also in the opportunities this gives.
This was a good thought and seems to be totally right (but not followed by the so called professionals).
Kamis, 13 November 2008
Thoughts on the AmEx bailout - by Crazy Carl
i find it hilarious american express needs a bailout of 3.5 billion dollars.
the government should loan the money to the company. and if they are late on a payment, jack the interest rate from 9% to 29%
and call the CEO at home incessantly when the company falls behind.
Well said Crazy Carl, well said. Don't even get me started on the crazy GM bailout. Why should we invest in a failing company!? Let's invest in companies of the future who can actually make money!
Selasa, 11 November 2008
Lots of New Shirts!
Click on any of the designs below to view all of the t-shirts that each image is available on:
Deez Nuts
What's up with those nuts? What nuts? Deez Nuts!
Slow Your Roll
If you're looking for an awesome retro t shirt or vintage tee, this Slow Your Roll tee-shirt is it.
Big Girls Need Loving Too
Both fat and skinny people will love this Big Girls Need Loving Too tee-shirt.
Droppin Loads
Droppin Loads t-shirt. What kind of loads are droppin? Use your imagination.
Want Me To Make You A Mix Tape?
Graphic and retro looking Want Me To Make You a Mix Tape t-shirt with cassette image.
Big Brother Is Watching
Freak people out with this Big Brother Is Watching tee-shirt.
Let's Go Back To My Place
Use this Let's Go Back To My Place shirt to easily pick up dorky chicks who love 80's movies.
What's up with those nuts? What nuts? Deez Nuts!
Slow Your Roll
If you're looking for an awesome retro t shirt or vintage tee, this Slow Your Roll tee-shirt is it.
Big Girls Need Loving Too
Both fat and skinny people will love this Big Girls Need Loving Too tee-shirt.
Droppin Loads
Droppin Loads t-shirt. What kind of loads are droppin? Use your imagination.
Want Me To Make You A Mix Tape?
Graphic and retro looking Want Me To Make You a Mix Tape t-shirt with cassette image.
Big Brother Is Watching
Freak people out with this Big Brother Is Watching tee-shirt.
Let's Go Back To My Place
Use this Let's Go Back To My Place shirt to easily pick up dorky chicks who love 80's movies.
Senin, 03 November 2008
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